Ubuntu 的人气在下降?纯属扯淡!,散发此虚假消息包括这
Ubuntu 的人气在下降?纯属扯淡!,散发此虚假消息包括这
最近就像多米诺骨牌一样,网络上关于Ubuntu的市场份额在下降、Ubuntu被它的近亲Linux Mint所超越的文章铺天盖地。散发此虚假消息包括这些国外著名科技博客The Register, ZDNet, PCWorld。这些文章大多都把责任归咎于Unity,而数据来源皆来自distrowatch.com。
更滑稽的是,竟有人声称Ubuntu 自Mark Shuttleworth 在2004 年创立Ubuntu以来,Ubuntu的市场份额一直在下降,它给出的图表如下:
它的主要(唯一)数据来源来自于distrowatch.com。
Ubuntu 的人气在下降?你在扯蛋吧。Linux News 将从以下几点分析,观点来自于omgubuntu:
distrowatch.com并不是准确的Linux 发行版流行度衡量方法
当一个发行版变为一个主流的Linux发行版,如ubuntu,Ubuntu DistroWatch主页的访问量并不会按ubuntu的实际用户数据比例增长。因为一般人并不会访问DistroWatch,还有可能他们都还没有听说过DistroWatch。通过上面滑稽的图表数据,你应该赞成当一个发行版是主流的Linux发行,DistroWatch的统计数据将没有意义。
其他衡量Linux 发行版流行度的方法
那么既然DistroWatch的方法不准确,那么如何知道相对的Linux 发行版流行度呢?事实上,它是相当困难的。或许最好的方法是看一下Facebook上各发行版主页。Facebook上Ubuntu已经超过500000粉丝,而Linux Mint只有14000。同样的方法,你可以看下Google+和Twitter发行版主页。
另外Google Trends也显示Ubuntu 明显领先。
另外DistroWatch也公布了distrowatch.com首页的访问情况,Ubuntu来明显领先。
还有一种方法就是查看一下wikimedia的统计数据,Ubuntu的数据也是遥遥领先。
附:下表为 Google Trends 2011年详细报表!
ubuntu | ubuntu (std error) | Fedora | fedora (std error) | linux mint | linux mint (std error) | open suse | open suse (std error) | |||
54 | 5% | 6.5 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | |||
Week | ubuntu | ubuntu (std error) | fedora | fedora (std error) | linux mint | linux mint (std error) | open suse | open suse (std error) | ||
Jan 2 2011 | 62 | 5% | 6 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Jan 9 2011 | 61 | 5% | 6 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Jan 16 2011 | 60 | 5% | 6 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Jan 23 2011 | 61 | 5% | 6.5 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Jan 30 2011 | 66 | 5% | 6 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Feb 6 2011 | 62.5 | 5% | 6.5 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Feb 13 2011 | 62.5 | 5% | 6.5 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Feb 20 2011 | 60 | 5% | 6 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Feb 27 2011 | 60 | 5% | 6 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Mar 6 2011 | 63 | 5% | 6.5 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Mar 13 2011 | 58.5 | 5% | 6 | 5% | 1.5 | >10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Mar 20 2011 | 63 | 5% | 6 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Mar 27 2011 | 62.5 | 5% | 6 | 5% | 1.5 | >10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Apr 3 2011 | 65.5 | 5% | 6.5 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Apr 10 2011 | 64.5 | 5% | 6.5 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Apr 17 2011 | 64 | 5% | 7 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Apr 24 2011 | 83.5 | 5% | 7 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
May 1 2011 | 83 | 5% | 7 | 5% | 2.5 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
May 8 2011 | 69.5 | 5% | 7 | 5% | 2.5 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
May 15 2011 | 64 | 5% | 6.5 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
May 22 2011 | 62 | 5% | 10.5 | 5% | 2.5 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
May 29 2011 | 62 | 5% | 9 | 5% | 2.5 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Jun 5 2011 | 57.5 | 5% | 7 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Jun 12 2011 | 58 | 5% | 7 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Jun 19 2011 | 56 | 5% | 7 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Jun 26 2011 | 53.5 | 5% | 6.5 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Jul 3 2011 | 53 | 5% | 6.5 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Jul 10 2011 | 51.5 | 5% | 6.5 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Jul 17 2011 | 54 | 5% | 6.5 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Jul 24 2011 | 52 | 5% | 6.5 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Jul 31 2011 | 52.5 | 5% | 6.5 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Aug 7 2011 | 52 | 5% | 6 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Aug 14 2011 | 53 | 5% | 6 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Aug 21 2011 | 53 | 5% | 6 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Aug 28 2011 | 52.5 | 5% | 6 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Sep 4 2011 | 52 | 5% | 6 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Sep 11 2011 | 53.5 | 5% | 6 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Sep 18 2011 | 52 | 5% | 6 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Sep 25 2011 | 52.5 | 5% | 6 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Oct 2 2011 | 55 | 5% | 6 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Oct 9 2011 | 71.5 | 5% | 6 | 5% | 2 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Oct 16 2011 | 74 | 5% | 6.5 | 5% | 2.5 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Oct 23 2011 | 63 | 5% | 6 | 5% | 2.5 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Oct 30 2011 | 59 | 5% | 6 | 5% | 2.5 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Nov 6 2011 | 57 | 5% | 8.5 | 5% | 3.5 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Nov 13 2011 | 52.5 | 5% | 7 | 5% | 3 | 10% | 0.5 | >10% | ||
Nov 20 2011 | 0 | >10% | 0 | >10% | 0 | >10% | 0 | >10% | ||
Nov 27 2011 | 0 | >10% | 0 | >10% | 0 | >10% | 0 | >10% | ||
Dec 4 2011 | 0 | >10% | 0 | >10% | 0 | >10% | 0 | >10% | ||
Dec 11 2011 | 0 | >10% | 0 | >10% | 0 | >10% | 0 | >10% | ||
Dec 18 2011 | 0 | >10% | 0 | >10% | 0 | >10% | 0 | >10% | ||
Dec 25 2011 | 0 | >10% | 0 | >10% | 0 | >10% | 0 | >10% | ||
Region | ubuntu | ubuntu (std error) | fedora | fedora (std error) | linux mint | linux mint (std error) | open suse | open suse (std error) | ||
Russian Federation | 1 | 0% | 0.065 | 3% | 0.035 | 5% | 0.005 | >10% | ||
Italy | 0.74 | 2% | 0.04 | 5% | 0.02 | 10% | 0.005 | >10% | ||
Czech Republic | 0.71 | 2% | 0.11 | 3% | 0.035 | 10% | 0.01 | >10% | ||
Spain | 0.65 | 2% | 0.03 | 10% | 0.02 | 10% | 0.005 | >10% | ||
Ukraine | 0.64 | 2% | 0.045 | 5% | 0.025 | 10% | 0.005 | >10% | ||
Indonesia | 0.615 | 2% | 0.05 | 5% | 0.025 | 10% | 0.005 | >10% | ||
Germany | 0.605 | 2% | 0.03 | 10% | 0.025 | 10% | 0.01 | >10% | ||
Finland | 0.57 | 2% | 0.05 | 5% | 0.03 | 10% | 0.005 | >10% | ||
Taiwan | 0.565 | 2% | 0.095 | 3% | 0.01 | >10% | 0 | >10% | ||
India | 0.54 | 2% | 0.1 | 3% | 0.015 | 10% | 0.005 | >10% | ||
City | ubuntu | ubuntu (std error) | fedora | fedora (std error) | linux mint | linux mint (std error) | open suse | open suse (std error) | ||
Beijing (China) | 1 | 0% | 0.15 | 3% | 0.01 | >10% | 0 | >10% | ||
Moscow (Russian Federation) | 0.965 | 2% | 0.09 | 3% | 0.035 | 10% | 0.005 | >10% | ||
Bangalore (India) | 0.735 | 2% | 0.145 | 3% | 0.02 | 10% | 0.01 | >10% | ||
Milan (Italy) | 0.58 | 2% | 0.045 | 5% | 0.02 | 10% | 0.005 | >10% | ||
Rome (Italy) | 0.57 | 2% | 0.04 | 5% | 0.015 | >10% | 0 | >10% | ||
Berlin (Germany) | 0.54 | 2% | 0.035 | 5% | 0.025 | 10% | 0.01 | >10% | ||
Barcelona (Spain) | 0.53 | 2% | 0.035 | 10% | 0.015 | >10% | 0.005 | >10% | ||
Madrid (Spain) | 0.51 | 2% | 0.035 | 5% | 0.015 | >10% | 0.005 | >10% | ||
Jakarta (Indonesia) | 0.495 | 2% | 0.05 | 5% | 0.02 | 10% | 0.005 | >10% | ||
Mexico City (Mexico) | 0.45 | 2% | 0.065 | 5% | 0.02 | 10% | 0.005 | >10% | ||
Language | ubuntu | ubuntu (std error) | fedora | fedora (std error) | linux mint | linux mint (std error) | open suse | open suse (std error) | ||
Russian | 1 | 0% | 0.06 | 5% | 0.035 | 5% | 0.005 | >10% | ||
Italian | 0.905 | 2% | 0.05 | 5% | 0.025 | 10% | 0.005 | >10% | ||
Indonesian | 0.725 | 2% | 0.065 | 3% | 0.03 | 10% | 0.01 | >10% | ||
German | 0.725 | 2% | 0.04 | 5% | 0.03 | 10% | 0.01 | >10% | ||
Spanish | 0.67 | 2% | 0.045 | 5% | 0.02 | 10% | 0.005 | >10% | ||
Chinese | 0.66 | 2% | 0.095 | 3% | 0.005 | >10% | 0 | >10% | ||
English | 0.595 | 2% | 0.085 | 3% | 0.02 | 10% | 0.005 | >10% | ||
French | 0.545 | 2% | 0.04 | 5% | 0.01 | >10% | 0 | >10% | ||
Finnish | 0.525 | 2% | 0.05 | 5% | 0.03 | 10% | 0.005 | >10% | ||
Hungarian | 0.525 | 2% | 0.04 | 5% | 0.03 | 10% | 0.005 | >10% | ||
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